Examination of National Basketball Association (NBA) team values based on dynamic linear mixed models.

In the last decade, NBA has grown into a billion-dollar industry where technology and advanced game plans play an essential role. Investors are interested in research examining the factors that can affect the team value. The aim of this research is to investigate the factors that affect the NBA team values. The value of a team can be influenced not only by performance-based variables, but also by macroeconomic indicators and demographic statistics. Data, analyzed in this study, contains of game statistics, economic variables and demographic statistics of the 30 teams in the NBA for the 2013-2020 seasons. Firstly, Pearson correlation test was implemented in order to identify the related variables. NBA teams' characteristics and similarities were assessed with Machine Learning techniques (K-means and Hierarchical clustering). Secondly, Ordinary linear regression (OLS), fixed effect and random effect models were implemented in the statistical analyses. The models were compared based on Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Fixed effect model with one lag was found the most effective model and our model produced consistently good results with the R2 statistics of 0.974. In the final model, we found that the significant determinants of team value at the NBA team level are revenue, GDP, championship, population and key player. In contrast, the total number of turnovers has a negative impact on team value. These findings would be beneficial to coaches and managers to improve their strategies to increase their teams' value.

Eliminating buyer's remorse: An examination of the sunk cost fallacy in the National Hockey League draft.

The sunk cost effect describes the tendency to escalate one's commitment toward a certain endeavor, despite diminishing returns, as a consequence of irreversible resource expenditure that has already been made (Organ Behav Hum Decis Process. 1985;35:124). This effect has been observed in a number of professional sports leagues, wherein teams escalate their commitment toward players selected early in the draft, regardless of performance outcomes, due to large financial commitments invested in them (J Sports Econom. 2017;18:282; Adm Sci Q. 1995;40:474). This effect, however, has yet to be explored in the National Hockey League (NHL). The purpose of this study was to test for sunk cost effects in the NHL, by examining the relationship between draft order and playing time, while controlling for a myriad of confounding variables. Findings from our analyses provide support for the existence of this effect in the NHL, as first-round draftees were given significantly more playing time than their peers selected in the second round, regardless of injury, player relocation, penalties, or on-ice performance outcomes. We offer some plausible underlying mechanisms driving this effect. Furthermore, we suggest the observed effects have valuable implications for NHL talent development, given the importance of playing time on various aspects of expertise attainment.

Does the principle of investment diversification apply to the starting pitching staffs of major league baseball teams?

Financial advisors often emphasize asset diversification as a means of limiting losses from investments that perform unexpectedly poorly over a particular time period. One might expect that this perceived wisdom could apply in another high stakes arena-professional baseball-where player salaries comprise a substantial portion of a team's operational costs, year-to-year player performance is highly variable, and injuries can occur at any time. These attributes are particularly true in the case of the starting pitching staffs of professional baseball teams. Accordingly, this study analyzes starting pitcher performance and financial data from all Major League Baseball teams for the period 1985-2016 to determine whether the standard investment advice is applicable in this context, understanding that the time horizon for success for an investor and a baseball team may be distinct. A multiple logistic regression model of playoff qualification probability, based on realized pitcher performance, measures of luck, and starting pitcher staff salary diversification is used to address this question. A further stratification is conducted to determine whether there are differences in strategy for teams with allocated financial resources that are above or below league average. We find that teams with above average resources increase their post-season qualification probability by focusing their salary funds on a relative few starting pitchers rather than diversifying that investment across the staff. Second, we find that pitcher performance must align with that investment in order for the team to have a high qualification probability. Third, the influence of luck is not negligible, but those teams that allocate more overall funds to their pitching are more resilient to bad luck. Thus, poorly resourced teams, who are generally unable to bid for pitchers at the highest salary levels, must adopt alternative strategies to maintain their competitiveness.

Nationality and sociocultural factors influence athlete development and sport outcomes: Perspectives from United States and Austrian youth alpine ski racing.

Geographical regions possess distinct sporting cultures that can influence athletic development from a young age. The United States (US) and Austria both produce elite alpine ski racers, yet have distinct sport structures (i.e., funding, skiing prominence). In this exploratory study, we investigated sport outcomes and psychological profiles in adolescent alpine ski racers attending skill development academies in the US (N= 169) and Austria (N= 209). Sport participation and psychological questionnaires (mental toughness, perfectionism, grit, coping, burnout) were administered to athletes. In Austria, athletes participated in fewer extracurricular sports, began competing and training younger, and accumulated less practice hours than athletes in the US. Athletes in the US reported greater burnout than athletes in Austria. Finally, in the US, women accumulated more practice hours and experienced more parental pressure than men, while men accumulated more practice hours in Austria. Austria's skiing-centric sport culture may encourage athletes to fully immerse into the sport, contributing to positive psychological outcomes. Reduced sport opportunities in the US beyond educational institutions may pressure athletes to practice more to ensure continued competitive skiing. Stressors for sport participation will be unique to gender in each country though, given their implicit gender stigmas for sport participation.

Dynamics of cognitive performance at rest and after exhaustive exercise in top-three world-ranked mixed martial arts athletes: a series of case studies.

Cognitive performance plays a key role in sports performance, especially in combat sports such as mixed martial arts (MMA). Studies with active and sedentary individuals showed either no change or decreased cognitive performance during or immediately after exercise. However, it is possible that elite MMA athletes would present preserved/improved cognitive performance after exhaustive exercise. In this series of cases studies, we tested this hypothesis by submitting three elite MMA athletes from the Bellator MMA® and UFC® to a cognitive assessment before, immediately after and 15 min after exhaustive exercise. A modified computerized version of the Stroop Test was used to test cognitive inhibition performance, from which reaction time (RT) and accuracy were obtained. The athletes performed an incremental exercise on a cycle simulator until volitional exhaustion. Immediately after exercise RT improved consistently in all three athletes (-6.5%; -8.0%; -15.0%), while accuracy presented a small increase (2.6%), decreases (-3.8%) or no change. Fifteen minutes after exercise, RT remained improved in two athletes (-9.1% and -15.5) or slightly increased (0.4%), while accuracy presented small increase in all athletes (0.5%; 1.3%; 2.1%) compared to pre-exercise. This result indicates that elite MMA athletes may present improved cognitive performance immediately after exhaustive exercise, which suggests that cognitive-motor training for MMA should be considered when planning a training program.

A bioecological perspective on talent identification in junior-elite soccer: A Pan-European perspective.

Elite soccer clubs across Europe spend ever-increasing sums of money on transfers and salaries for world-class players. Consequently, clubs' talent identification and development processes for junior players have become more professionalised. Based on a holistic ecological approach, this study presents an analysis of talent identification practices across some of the most productive soccer academies in Europe (N = 11). Data were collected via semi-structured interviews with 11 heads of academy recruitment from clubs in the "big five" European leagues. Clubs were purposively sampled based on their player productivity ranking. Interviews ranged from 52:26 minutes to 114:06 minutes in length (m = 87:53 ± 20.10 minutes). This study argues that holistic ecological approaches the environments were characterised through the interplay of factors that ranged from high-level internal to international level relationships. This resulted in the identification and recruitment of players from local and international environments. The purpose of recruitment was suggested to have a dual purpose: recruitment of players for the first team; recruitment of players for further development/monitoring and/or selling to another club.

Evaluation of soccer players under the Moneyball concept.

The recruitment of athletes with limited resources is a global problem in professional sports. In US Major League Baseball, the experience of the Oakland Athletics' general manager in the last decade turned his "Moneyball" model into a synonym of quantitative analysis in the transfer market of baseball players. His strategy focused on hiring players with outstanding technical skills but relatively low market value. This study adapted this model to the framework of a multiple criteria decision aid (MCDA), by selecting undervalued players who have complementary abilities. The novelty here refers to the joint use of four algorithms explored by the composition of probabilistic preferences (CPP) (i.e., ranking, classification, dynamic evaluation and regularity analysis) and their application to soccer player performance evaluation. The new model analysed the recent transfer of a left-back soccer player to Europe. The results indicated 12 opportunities for better investment, among 32 left and right-back players considered. Two years later, the value of the same player was considerably lower. He played only five matches in the 2018-2019 season, without scoring or providing any assists. On the other hand, the players better classified by the CPP-MB model presented higher performances and market values.

Transfer market activities and sportive performance in European first football leagues: A dynamic network approach.

Professional football is a globalized game in which players are the most valuable assets for clubs. In this study, we explore the evolution of the football players' transfer network among 21 European first leagues between the seasons 1996/1997 and 2015/2016. From a topological point of view, we show that this network achieved an upper limit expansion around season 2007/2008, thereafter becoming more connected and dense. Using a machine learning approach based on Self-Organizing Maps and Principal Component Analysis we confirm that European competitions, such as the UEFA Champions League or UEFA Europa League, are indeed a "money game" where the clubs with the highest transfer spending achieve better sportive performance. Some clubs' transfer market activities also affect domestic performance. We conclude from our findings that the relationship between transfer spending and domestic or international sportive performance might lead to substantial inequality between clubs and leagues, while potentially creating a virtuous (vicious) circle in which these variables reinforce (weaken) each other.

Short-Term Impact of Concussion in the NHL: An Analysis of Player Longevity, Performance, and Financial Loss.

Many studies have focused on the long-term impact of concussions in professional sports, but few have investigated short-term effects. This study examines concussion effects on individual players in the National Hockey League (NHL) by assessing career length, performance, and salary. Contracts, transactions, injury reports, and performance statistics from 2008-17 were obtained from the official NHL online publication. Players who sustained a concussion were compared with the 2008-17 non-concussed player pool. Career length was analyzed using Kaplan-Meier survival curves and stratification of player age, experience, and longevity. Player performance and salary changes were evaluated between the years before versus after concussion. Performance and salary changes were compared against non-concussed NHL athletes before/after their career midpoints. Of the 2194 eligible NHL players in the 9-year period, 309 sustained 399 concussions resulting in injury protocol. The probability of playing a full NHL season post-concussion was significantly decreased compared with the non-concussed pool (p < 0.05), specifically 65.0% versus 81.2% at 1 year into a player's career, 49.8% versus 67.4% at 2 years, and 14.6% versus 43.7% at 5 years. Performance was reduced at all non-goalie positions post-concussion (p < 0.05). Players scored 2.5 points/year less following a concussion. The total annualized financial impact from salary reductions after 1 concussion was $57.0 million, with a decrease of $292,000 per year in contract value per athlete. This retrospective study demonstrates that NHL concussions resulting in injury protocol activation lead to shorter career lengths, earnings reductions, and decreased performance when compared with non-concussed controls.

Aerobic endurance performance does not determine the professional career of elite youth soccer players.

BACKGROUND: Physical characteristics have been widely analyzed in order to understand why some soccer players are more successful than others. Therefore, the aims of this study were: 1) to describe the evolution of aerobic endurance performance across 18 years in a Spanish elite soccer academy; 2) to know if the playing position could affect physical testing performance; and 3) to look into the alleged impact of this factor on the professional career of soccer players. METHODS: We considered 162 players belonging to the reserve team of an elite Spanish soccer club from 1994 to 2012. The percentage of players that played in the reserve team for at least five matches in Third Division (2nd B) and later promoted to the Spanish First or Second Division was 32%. The participants were classified in three six-year periods and according to their highest competitive level attained until the 2014/2015 season and their regular tactical position. All the players performed a four-stage submaximal intermittent running test with the running speeds 12 km/h (10 min), 13 km/h (10 min), 14 km/h (10 min), and 15 km/h (5 min) in order to assess the individual velocities associated with a [La]b of 3 mmol/L (i.e., V3). RESULTS: No differences (P>0.05) in aerobic fitness were found between the three six-year periods groups (P>0.05), between the tactical positions nor among the competitive levels attained. CONCLUSIONS: These findings indicate that aerobic endurance performance (i.e., V3) is not a pertinent trait when identifying players from different seasons, tactical positions and competitive levels.

Competitive Advantage in Intercollegiate Athletics: Role of Intangible Resources.

The present research explored the dynamics of competitive advantages in intercollegiate athletics by investigating the contribution of intangible resources (i.e., athletic and academic reputations) on the generation of more tangible resources (i.e., human and financial resources), which in turn influence the athletic performance (i.e., winning record) and academic performance (i.e., graduation rates), and gender equity. The research was based entirely on archival data of 324 NCAA Division I member institutions. The results of the SEM supported the study's basic arguments that tangible resources are the sources of competitive advantages in Division I intercollegiate athletics, and that intangible resources contribute to the generation of tangible resources.

Just how important is a good season start? Overall team performance and financial budget of elite soccer clubs.

The aim of the current study was (i) to identify how important is a good season start on elite soccer teams' performance and (ii) to examine whether this impact is related to the clubs' financial budget. The match performances and annual budgets of all teams were collected from the English FA Premier League, French Ligue 1, Spanish La Liga, Italian Serie A and German Bundesliga for three consecutive seasons (2010-2011 to 2012-2013). A k-means cluster analysis classified the clubs according to their budget as High Range Budget Clubs, Upper-Mid Range Budget Clubs, Lower-Mid Range Budget Clubs and Low Range Budget Clubs. Data were examined through linear regression models. Overall, the results suggested that the better the team performance at the beginning of the season, the better the ranking at the end of the season. However, the impact of the effect depended on the clubs' annual budget, with lower budgets being associated with a greater importance of having a good season start (P < 0.01). Moreover, there were differences in trends across the different leagues. These variables can be used to develop accurate models to estimate final rankings. Conversely, Lower-Mid and Lower Range Budget Clubs can benefit from fine-tuning preseason planning in order to accelerate the acquisition of optimal performances.

Pay dispersion and performance in teams.

Extant research offers conflicting predictions about the effect of pay dispersion on team performance. We collected a unique dataset from the Italian soccer league to study the effect of intra-firm pay dispersion on team performance, under different definitions of what constitutes a "team". This peculiarity of our dataset can explain the conflicting evidence. Indeed, we also find positive, null, and negative effects of pay dispersion on team performance, using the same data but different definitions of team. Our results show that when the team is considered to consist of only the members who directly contribute to the outcome, high pay dispersion has a detrimental impact on team performance. Enlarging the definition of the team causes this effect to disappear or even change direction. Finally, we find that the detrimental effect of pay dispersion is due to worse individual performance, rather than a reduction of team cooperation.

Bridging the gap between empirical results, actual strategies, and developmental programs in soccer.

Being one of the most prominent globalized sports, soccer played at club, national, and continental levels has a relevant societal role. At present, the specific competencies, interests, and languages of the different actors involved in the selection, development, and support of long-lasting careers of players might limit opportunities for potential talented players. Unless the cultural environment of soccer resolves the gaps between empirical results and actual soccer strategies, scientific discussion relating to the effectiveness of talent selection and development remains limited. This commentary is intended to highlight the need for developmental programs to prepare soccer personnel for a transdisciplinary dialogue, which could foster a future development of this sport. Finally, in considering the wide soccer-related employment opportunities at local, national, and international levels, the need for a clear qualification framework is crucial.

More than just the mean: moving to a dynamic view of performance-based compensation.

Compensation decisions have important consequences for employees and organizations and affect factors such as retention, motivation, and recruitment. Past research has primarily focused on mean performance as a predictor of compensation, promoting the implicit assumption that alternative aspects of dynamic performance are not relevant. To address this gap in the literature, we examined the influence of dynamic performance characteristics on compensation decisions in the National Basketball Association (NBA). We predicted that, in addition to performance mean, performance trend and variability would also affect compensation decisions. Results revealed that performance mean and trend, but not variability, were significantly and positively related to changes in compensation levels of NBA players. Moreover, trend (but not mean or variability) predicted compensation when controlling for future performance, suggesting that organizations overweighted trend in their compensation decisions. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

Investigating customer racial discrimination in the secondary baseball card market.

A growing body of literature in a variety of disciplines has appeared over the last 20 years examining customer racial bias in the secondary sports card market; however, consensus on the matter has yet to emerge. In this article, we explore the more subtle ways that a player's race/ethnicity may affect the value of his sports card including a player's skin tone (light- to dark-skinned). Data were obtained for 383 black, Latino, and white baseball players who had received at least one vote for induction into Major League Baseball's Hall of Fame including their career performance statistics, rookie card price, card availability, Hall of Fame status, and skin tone. Findings indicate that card availability is the primary determinant of card value while a player's skin tone has no direct effect. Subsequent analysis demonstrates that a player's race (white/non-white) rather than skin tone did have an effect as it interacts with Hall of Fame status to influence his rookie card price.

Qualitative evidence of a primary intervention point for elite athlete doping.

Anti-doping activities in sport have shifted from secondary prevention (intervening after athletes have used) to educational strategies focused on primary prevention through promoting abstinence. There is no empirical evidence to guide targeting of anti-doping education initiatives. In this paper, a heuristic to guide education initiatives was derived by re-analysing a series of interviews (n=20) with athletes, coaches, sports managers, physiotherapists and sports nutritionists. The findings indicate primary prevention of doping may be enhanced by timing it around periods of career instability where athlete vulnerability to doping may increase as a function of winning or losing sponsorship. Sponsorship is broadly defined as financial (e.g. salary stipend) and non-financial support (e.g. training facilities). This provides a basis for targeting education interventions to promote abstinence. Two options are offered to mitigate the need to time prevention activity around career instability by lessening the effect of sponsorship on athlete doping. The first is liberalising access to legitimate performance enhancing technologies (e.g. training techniques or nutritional supplements). The second is to delay access to financial sponsorship (beyond living expenses) until retirement, with monetary gains (e.g. prize money) deposited into an account where penalties are debited if the athlete is caught doping.

White Anglo-Saxon hopes and black Americans' Atlantic dreams: Jack Johnson and the British boxing colour bar.

This article examines the controversy surrounding Jack Johnson's proposed world heavyweight title fight against the British champion Bombardier Billy Wells in London (1911). In juxtaposing African Americans' often glowing discussions of European tolerance with the actual white resistance the black champion faced in Britain, including the Home Office's eventual prohibition of the match, the article explores the period's transnational discourses of race and citizenship. Indeed, as white sportsmen on both sides of the Atlantic joined together in their search for a "White Hope" to unseat Johnson, the boxing ring became an important cultural arena for interracial debates over the political and social divisions between white citizens and nonwhite subjects. Although African Americans had high hopes for their hero's European sojourn, the British backlash against the Johnson-Wells match underscored the fact that their local experiences of racial oppression were just one facet of a much broader global problem. At the same time, the proposed prizefight also made the specter of interracial conflict in the colonies all the more tangible in the British capital, provoking public discussions about the merits of U.S. racial segregation, along with the need for white Anglo-Saxon solidarity around the world. Thus, this article not only exposes the underlying connections between American Jim Crow and the racialized fault lines of British imperialism, but it also traces the "tense and tender ties" linking U.S. and African American history with the new imperial history and postcolonial studies.